Social Cost of Carbon Under Stochastic Tipping Points

Stochastic tipping points in climate dynamics.

A crucial question recently raised in climate dynamics concerns abrupt climate transitions: Are they due to a tipping point (TP) being exceeded, or is fast noisy dynamics the cause of their excitation? In this respect, a case study based on a low-order ocean model is developed to show that in an excitable dynamical system perturbed by noise (a possible climate condition) the TPs may have limite...

Social tipping points and Earth systems dynamics

1 Department of Archaeology and Anthropology, Bristol University, Bristol, UK 2 Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK 3 Institute of Hazard , Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Durham, UK 4 School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK 5 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK 6 Durham University Business School, Dur...

Nber Working Paper Series Tropical Forests, Tipping Points, and the Social Cost of Deforestation

Recent work has suggested that tropical forest and savanna represent alternative stable states, which are subject to drastic switches at tipping points, in response to changes in rainfall patterns and other drivers. Deforestation cost studies have ignored the likelihood and possible economic impact of a forest-savanna critical transition, therefore underestimating the true social cost of defore...

Halting the Climate Dominoes: Mitigation Policy Under Interacting Tipping Points

Scientific research highlights the possibility that man-made greenhouse gas emissions can trigger irreversible regime shifts in the climate system, so-called tipping points. The literature is particularly concerned with the possibility that a first regime shift, e.g., reinforcing the temperature response to emissions, significantly increases the likelihood of other tipping points, starting a do...

Predicting social tipping points Current research and the way forward